Chartered Management Institute - UK has released an engrossing report on the what the workplace/ organisation will look like in 10 years. You can download the report and 'accessories' from;
http://www.managers.org.uk/client_files/user_files/Milburn_21/Management%20Futures%20Report%20Final.pdf
The report called 'Management Futures' outlines how our working world is going to look like when viewed through three prisms - 'World continued' - Probable, 'Unexpected Future' - alternative worlds and the 'Desired Future'.
The only gap I see in the report is lack of attention to the most basic human element - 'stupidity'. The recent events in the financial world (sub prime!) shows that humanity is still governed by the base values of greed and stupidity. Whatever happens, it is unlikely that we, as a human race, are going to display any fundamental change in our driving forces. I think we will continue to have equivalents of Enron, WorldCom, Subprime in varied forms or mutants.
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On another front, it was gratifying to note that 'Visa takes Life' through a bumper IPO. The Visa adv campaigns say 'Life takes Visa' - so we are happy to note that it holds true the other way around too! This was one IPO that the whole world collectively worked to make it a success. It is an irony of our times that a company sells itself on the tag line 'it does not offer any credit and hence runs no risk of default!'
But all said and done, our badly battered world needed some cheer!
Monday, March 24, 2008
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Card Fraud - truly globalized!
APACS released the latest figures on UK Card fraud - http://www.apacs.org.uk/2007Fraudfiguresrelease.html
It really shows how good criminals are in quickly exploiting 'systemic' loopholes. UK spent more than a billion pounds to implement chip and pin. Shows how truly globalized the criminals are! If ChipPin impedes my fraudulent activities in UK; no problem, I simply copy the magstripe and use it 'non' chip countries. Well, the biggest non EMV country is the US. Overall card fraud has increased 25% in 2007 over 2006. This is mainly driven by the 77% hike in overseas fraud. Online fraud rose 33%. I think these figures will look the same for all countries across the world.
Total card fraud losses stand at a mind numbing £535.2m. So, what do we infer from these figures?
-Whatever level of Chip / EMV security you put in a country, criminals will always find a way to clone magstripes and use them in places where EMV hasn't reached yet.
-Criminals will continue to thrive in the online world. With the surfeit of social networking and other areas for interaction, there is ample opportunity for criminals to indulge in 'social fraud'.
-As long as the US remains out of bounds on EMV, counterfeit fraud cannot be stamped off.
-With the economic downturn and heightened jobless levels, more vantage opportunities caused by desperation.
All in all, expect these figures to up further in 2008. There is nothing to suggest that criminals are getting dumber or restricted in any way. If anything, worsening economic conditions are going to lead to more power to card fraud and swelling in the ranks of fraudsters.
"Fraud is like electricity; it is shocking and follows the path of least resistance."
It really shows how good criminals are in quickly exploiting 'systemic' loopholes. UK spent more than a billion pounds to implement chip and pin. Shows how truly globalized the criminals are! If ChipPin impedes my fraudulent activities in UK; no problem, I simply copy the magstripe and use it 'non' chip countries. Well, the biggest non EMV country is the US. Overall card fraud has increased 25% in 2007 over 2006. This is mainly driven by the 77% hike in overseas fraud. Online fraud rose 33%. I think these figures will look the same for all countries across the world.
Total card fraud losses stand at a mind numbing £535.2m. So, what do we infer from these figures?
-Whatever level of Chip / EMV security you put in a country, criminals will always find a way to clone magstripes and use them in places where EMV hasn't reached yet.
-Criminals will continue to thrive in the online world. With the surfeit of social networking and other areas for interaction, there is ample opportunity for criminals to indulge in 'social fraud'.
-As long as the US remains out of bounds on EMV, counterfeit fraud cannot be stamped off.
-With the economic downturn and heightened jobless levels, more vantage opportunities caused by desperation.
All in all, expect these figures to up further in 2008. There is nothing to suggest that criminals are getting dumber or restricted in any way. If anything, worsening economic conditions are going to lead to more power to card fraud and swelling in the ranks of fraudsters.
"Fraud is like electricity; it is shocking and follows the path of least resistance."
Mobile phone - birthright of every world citizen!
In one of my earlier blogs, I laid out the opportunity of mobile numbers being used as 'citizen ID' and enabling access to credit to the huge mass of unbanked citizens of the world.
Well, I now go a step further - we need a 'Universal Declaration of Mobile Phone Rights'. I think it is about time the United Nations passed a resolution requiring every country to issue mobile phone to its citizens. All the global talk of identification, rights, cheap credit is meaningless without a global platform on which every world citizen can enjoy rights.
Companies like Mi phone are coming out with a $ 20 mobile phone. See www.mi-fone.mobi/
Very soon, a phone will be as affordable as a watch and it makes sense for the world to seize this opportunity and get the world 'mobile'.
As a popular advertisement by a MSP in India goes ; 'Air, Water, Food .... .. Network'.
Time to make mobile phone a basic human right.
Well, I now go a step further - we need a 'Universal Declaration of Mobile Phone Rights'. I think it is about time the United Nations passed a resolution requiring every country to issue mobile phone to its citizens. All the global talk of identification, rights, cheap credit is meaningless without a global platform on which every world citizen can enjoy rights.
Companies like Mi phone are coming out with a $ 20 mobile phone. See www.mi-fone.mobi/
Very soon, a phone will be as affordable as a watch and it makes sense for the world to seize this opportunity and get the world 'mobile'.
As a popular advertisement by a MSP in India goes ; 'Air, Water, Food .... .. Network'.
Time to make mobile phone a basic human right.
Regulations ahoy!
What is the most likely event to emanate from all the downslides in the financial market? Yes, the plethora of new laws and regulations. We saw Sarbanes-Oxeley in response to Enron and World Com. We had the Patriot Act after 9/11.
So, what do you expect from the subprime crisis - new laws, of course! The first salvo seems to be fired off by the US House Committee on Financial Services - see here http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/financialsvcs_dem/press0320082.shtml
Congressman Barney Frank has called out for a 'systemic risk regulator' to obviate malpractices seen recently. He has also called out for reforming the regulatory system (yet again!), reassess capital, margin and reserve requirements, monitor auction/mortgage securities.
Will regulatory zeal curb the rising Tsunami of red ink splattering across various areas of the financial world? The Insurance industry has already sounded the alarm hooter. AIG announced its worst ever 4Q results last week and called it 'a bigger event than Katrina'. Other insurance companies are no better. Total write downs and credit losses have touched $ 38 B. The New York Times observed last week that the term CDOs appeared in the newspaper only thrice before 2005; but almost every week since the summer of 2007! Our lives are permanently scarred by sub prime.
So, you think that strict laws following bailouts will keep financial institutions wary of transgression? I am not so sure! Like for Y2K, Sar Box, Basel II, the IT consultants and solution providers will be off to the races.
From my perspective, I think the regulators should impose the 'common man's understanding' yardstick to all the investment banks. All products and offerings should be approved by a certain percentage of investors, bank customers that they have understood the products! This way, at least we will be saved from scratching our heads on CDOs, SDVs, hedges, etc and wondering how these complicated items take us down into the recessionary dumps. At the least, if we are going downhill, we should know why.
So, what do you expect from the subprime crisis - new laws, of course! The first salvo seems to be fired off by the US House Committee on Financial Services - see here http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/financialsvcs_dem/press0320082.shtml
Congressman Barney Frank has called out for a 'systemic risk regulator' to obviate malpractices seen recently. He has also called out for reforming the regulatory system (yet again!), reassess capital, margin and reserve requirements, monitor auction/mortgage securities.
Will regulatory zeal curb the rising Tsunami of red ink splattering across various areas of the financial world? The Insurance industry has already sounded the alarm hooter. AIG announced its worst ever 4Q results last week and called it 'a bigger event than Katrina'. Other insurance companies are no better. Total write downs and credit losses have touched $ 38 B. The New York Times observed last week that the term CDOs appeared in the newspaper only thrice before 2005; but almost every week since the summer of 2007! Our lives are permanently scarred by sub prime.
So, you think that strict laws following bailouts will keep financial institutions wary of transgression? I am not so sure! Like for Y2K, Sar Box, Basel II, the IT consultants and solution providers will be off to the races.
From my perspective, I think the regulators should impose the 'common man's understanding' yardstick to all the investment banks. All products and offerings should be approved by a certain percentage of investors, bank customers that they have understood the products! This way, at least we will be saved from scratching our heads on CDOs, SDVs, hedges, etc and wondering how these complicated items take us down into the recessionary dumps. At the least, if we are going downhill, we should know why.
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